Is an increase in testing resulting in a "bulge" of 9th-graders, and a dropoff of students in the higher grades?
The bulge is the name education researchers give to the percentage increase in students in the 9th grade over the number who were enrolled in 8th grade. Over the same period, statistics show that growing numbers of students seem to be disappearing between the 9th and 10th grades.
The researchers attribute those trends to the rising use of standardized exams, stiffer course requirements for graduation, and, more recently, the growth of "high stakes" accountability programs. In the face of those developments, they say, schools are retaining students in 9th grade—and, in some cases, derailing them from the path to a regular high school diploma.
Sounds like the NCLB is catching some kids in high school who don't seem ready for high school, and they're being left behind - in the 9th grade. Is it really a "national emergency" - or a sign that we're not doing a good job of educating those 14-year-olds?
Other experts interviewed last week did not quibble with the trends the report documents. They did take issue, though, with some of the study's methods and conclusions.
John Robert Warren, an assistant sociology professor at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, said other factors besides the movement for academic standards and high-stakes testing might explain the growing 9th grade bottleneck and sliding graduation rates.
"Is it because kids quit school?" he said. "Is it because they move to a different state? To say that it's because of high-stakes testing would require more careful investigation than they have done."
Even if grade repeaters are causing the bulge, added Jay P. Greene, a senior fellow at the New York City-based Manhattan Institute, is that good or bad?
"Ultimately, we care about graduation rates as an indicator of acquisition of skills," he said. "If students are being retained in 9th grade because they lack the skills to be promoted, then it does them no good to pass them on to the 10th grade."
I agree with that.
Like their critics, the authors recognize that the drop in graduates could stem from a variety of factors, some of which they attempted to rule out.
To see whether the students were leaving public schools for private schools, for instance, they looked at private school enrollments nationwide, but found that the numbers had held steady. They also looked at statistics for home schoolers, teenage-mortality rates, and U.S. Census Bureau data on the percentages of school-age children migrating out of states.
Those broad statistical checks were not systematic enough to convince researchers such as Mr. Warren that the standards and testing movement was at fault. But Mr. Haney and his co-authors insist that such policies are the most likely culprit.
What's more, they say, some anecdotal evidence suggests schools may be actively "pushing out" students who are likely to fail high-stakes exams. Such exams are used to decide which schools or teachers get bonuses, which students graduate or move to the next grade, and which districts earn failing labels.
Their report points to Houston, for example, where administrators in 15 schools last year reported dropout rates incorrectly. ("Houston Case Offers Lesson on Dropouts," Sept. 24, 2003).
According to their own results, bulges were found in all but three states - Arkansas, Louisiana, and Maine. And in 12 states, the bulge was huge - 15% or more extra freshmen. Do the researcher really believe that the shenanigans in Houston have been replicated to this extent across the entire country?
I've no doubt that accountability measures are the cause of some of this bulge - and like Mr. Greene, I don't think it's a bad thing. But I think it's ridiculous to claim that fudging the accountability numbers is one of the causes.
Posted by kswygert at January 28, 2004 08:40 PM